Update No. 87 – 23/11/12

It was an interesting week; a large decline (on no news) in one of our largest holdings was mostly offset by positive movements across much of the rest of the portfolio, leaving us down about ½ of 1% on the week.  Once again, there was some excellent buying that continued the building of intrinsic value in our portfolio that will in due course (we expect) translate into further meaningful appreciation in price, though that is not to say we couldn’t find ourselves lower between now and then.  The benchmark handsomely outperformed us this week with a nearly 1.8% gain, though we still maintain a solid lead since July 1, since inception and since every entry point (July 1^st & January 1^st each year) since inception.

I have referred previously to Thomas Malthus and his dire predictions of doom for the human race, that earth had no hope of supporting a population of greater than 1 billion.  As I have pointed out previously, in the ensuing 200 years, 6 billion more people have been added to the global population and every one of them lives above the poverty line (that is to say the total number of people living in abject poverty is no different now than 200 years ago despite a population 7 times as large).

I refer again to Malthus because I found this article about the world’s first commercial ‘vertical’ farm in Singapore.  If you think Human ingenuity cannot support substantially more people in good living conditions than the current 7 billion, then I’d seriously reconsider your position.  This is not a comment on the commercial viability of ‘vertical’ farming, just a reminder of human ability to adapt.

That is (obviously) not to ignore that the wisest course of action we could take globally is to substantially slow the rate of population expansion.  I am a firm believer that there is a natural underlying carrying capacity for earth, it’s just that I believe it is many times larger than anyone can realistically conceptualise because as a group, we’re an ingenious lot.  If global population growth can return by around the middle of this 21^st century to around the 0.5% – 0.6% growth that was common in the 19^th century, then the population in about 200 years’ time will likely be something in the order of 25 billion.  I have no doubt that level of population will be comfortably supportable with technological development over the intervening period – Tony Hansen 23/11/12

EGP Fund No. 1 Pty Ltd. Up by 12.69%, leading the benchmark by 2.41% since July 1^st. Since inception, EGP Fund No. 1 Pty Ltd is Up by 16.07%, leading the benchmark by 17.33% all-time (April 1^st 2011).