Update No. 49 – 02/03/12

This week, I point readers to a blog I follow called Future Pundit, which focuses on a variety of technological trends likely to alter our future.  The blog is fantastic for those with an inquisitive mind about how the future is likely to look.

Specifically this week, I was interested in this edition from about a month ago, which draws attention to a paper indicating our need to look closely at our fossil fuel consumption. The paper points out that the imperative driving the need for this change is not Anthropogenic Global Warming, but rather simple economics:

"Given our fossil-fuel dependent economies, this is more urgent and has a shorter time frame than global climate change," says James W. Murray, UW professor of oceanography.

Peak oil has been discussed since the first supply shocks in the 1970’s, but I suspect we as a global whole are not paying nearly enough attention to the very rapid increases in consumption from major emerging economies in concert with the very rapid stagnation in any new discoveries of note.  There will come a time when we will be forced by scarcity to create viable energy alternatives, we probably don’t need to make an issue of AGW, the need for change will be forced on us, with oil trading well over US$100, people become very interested in alternatives.  The higher it goes, the greater the economic imperative.

The 7.6% change in our unit price this week is sufficient to warrant additional comment (given the static market).  Basically, half of our holding (the big half by value) reported this week. Truth be told, the reports were in almost every respect exactly what I’d expected, but the market must have seen something it liked and gave a substantial re-rating to two of our three largest holdings.  It is here, I must point out my hesitation in reporting weekly, though I feel fellow holders in the ‘information age’ are entitled to regular updates, I will be doing everything in my power to ensure my partners in EGP Fund No. 1 Pty Ltd develop (if they do not already possess) the correct temperament for long-term investing.

Given our concentrated portfolio, I have been quite surprised that we have not been more ‘bouncy’ in our weekly movements (seen here compared to the market).  Regardless of what happens price-wise, I remain extremely enamoured with the long-term prospects of our holdings – Tony Hansen 02/03/12.

EGP Fund No. 1 Pty Ltd. Up by 11.75%, leading the benchmark by 5.25% since January 1^st. Since inception, EGP Fund No. 1 Pty Ltd is Up by 7.57%, leading the benchmark by 15.27% all-time (April 1^st 2011).